Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Narrowing The Field

The campaign to replace President Bush with someone who knows what the f*ck they're doing continues to become clearer. Less than a month into the primary season, several once serious contenders have dropped out. On the Democratic side, former Senator and vice presidential candidate John Edwards has thrown in the towel after coming in third in his home state of South Carolina. And for the Republicans, Fred Thompson and and Rudy Giuliani have bitten the dust.

Giuliani's withdrawal is perhaps the most surprising. Just six months ago, he looked like the man to beat. Then he inexplicably decided to sit out the early primaries and caucases and concentrate on winning Florida. Unfortunately he finished a distant third in the Sunshine State.



But it's Mike Huckabee's situation that is the most amusing. He pulled off a big win in Iowa by relying on the evangelical Christian vote. Shortly before the caucuses, when polls showed him with a clear lead, Huckabee explained his popularity this way:
"There's only one explanation for it, and it's not a human one. It's the same power that helped a little boy with two fish and five loaves feed a crowd of 5,000."
The former Arkansas governor failed to win any more contests after that, and I'd really love to hear Huckabee explain exactly why God has suddenly taken his fish back.

That leaves the Republicans with a two man race: Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Arizona Senator John McCain. Romney's only win has been in Michigan, the state where he was born and his father once served as governor. That leaves McCain as the undisputed front runner. This, too, is a reversal of what was once the conventional wisdom. Last summer, McCain's campaign was all but broke and his candidacy appeared doomed. It was Romney who was among the top two or three Republcian candidates.

All that can be said about the situation among the Democrats is that it's now clearly a two person race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Beyond that, there's no clearcut leader. The momentum continues to shift back and forth between the two of them and it's impossible to say who will emerge as the nominee.

February 5 is what is being dubbed "Super Tuesday." Twenty four states will hold primaries and caucuses. By Tuesday night, we should have a clearer picture of our choices for the November election.

0 thoughtful ramblings: