Monday, November 01, 2004

Predictions and Predilections
Tomorrow is election day in the good ol' U.S. of A., and by now all the pundits with their fancy-schmancy degrees have weighed in. And their consensus as to the winner? It's too close to call!

Give me a freakin' break! You'd think these people with their "statistical dead heats" would have enough cajones to go out on a limb like I'll be doing in a moment!

But first: One of my favorite sites, (the site's color coded map appears to unavailable at the moment) has Kerry winning 298 electoral votes compared to Bush's 231, with 9 still too close to call. Incidentally, that site's previously anonymous owner has just been outed--and it turns out he lives in Amsterdam!

Although the various daily tracking polls have been all over the board during the past two months, there has been one consistent problem that has plagued all of them: They're not allowed to call cellphone numbers. And with an increasing portion of the population doing away their traditional landlines, that's a significant number. And since most of these people are young adults, a sizable majority of this unmeasured quantity can be expected go for Kerry.

That's why when all is said and done, this election will turn out to NOT have been as close as most people are currently expecting.

My predictions:

Total turnout: 122 million (compared with 106 million in 2000)

Popular votes:
52% for John Kerry
46% for George "I Coulda Sworn They Had WMD's" Bush
2% for Ralph Nader and the assorted other wacko gadflies

Electoral College (270 to win):
340 for John Kerry
(Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida will all go for Kerry.)
198 for George "Everything Is Going Great In Iraq
Provided You Ignore The Growing Pile Of Dead Bodies" Bush

As for my predilections, well, my lawyer is advising me to save those till after the trial.

0 thoughtful ramblings: