Chicken Little Was Right

Phil at Bad Astronomy has prepared an informative video about the anticipated shootdown of that spy satellite. Among other things, it covers the differences between what we're doing (150 miles high) vs. what the Chinese did (500 miles).

One other point to be made about the hydrazine tank: A similar tank from the Columbia space shuttle survived re-entry in 2003 (though it was pretty much empty since it was at the end of its mission).

Some people have also argued that since the Earth's surface is 75% water, the odds are that the satellite would have 'harmlessly' landed in the ocean anyway.

I personally know some whales that would take issue with that definition of 'harmlessly.'

More importantly, it still leaves a 25% chance that it would impact on land. And while it's certainly true that no one has yet been killed by falling space debris, do we really want to push our luck? Besides, I'm not sure if my car's insurance covers flaming spy satellite debris.

Looking at it another way, this satellite thing is a great argument in favor of global warming. As glaciers and ice caps melt, ocean levels rise. This means that in another 20 years or so, the Earth's surface will actually be, say, 85% water and 15% land. Consequently, we'll be that much safer from falling satellites!